As we so often do here at Sunny Side, we'll try to be the voice of reason and add our own opinions.
It's rare to have a coaching decision cause such a divisive rift, but this was no ordinary decision. You have Bill Belichick, a coach renown for his intellect, making a very unconventional call - going for it on fourth down at the Patriots 28 yard line with just over two minutes to go.
No decision can be made in a vacuum so we must consider the obvious variables:
- Home game for the Colts (indoors)
- Patriots up by 6 with 2:08 to play
- Colts just scored a 79 yard touchdown in 1:44
- The Patriots defense not only gave up a long drive, but gave up a TD to begin the 4th quarter as well (79 yards on 5 plays in 1:59)
- The Patriots have some guy name Tom Brady running their offense
- The Colts have some guy named Peyton Manning running their offense
- The Ball is at the Patriots 28
- It is the Fourth Quarter and the Colts are losing which means Peyton will have four chances, not three, to get a first down
- The Patriots drive went as followed: rush for no gain, 8 yard pass, incomplete pass
Besides those variables, there are questions that need to be pondered on Belichick's end:
- What did Brady think?
- How was the Pats defense (tired/exhausted/did the have confidence after giving up two long TDs)?
- Did Belichick like the match up against the Colts D?
- Does he have a great play to call in mind?
- Did the yardage matter (as opposed to getting 4 or 5 yards)?
- Does he think his defense will hold if they fail to get the first down?
Former Patriot players Rodney Harrison and Teddy Bruschi, along with Tony Dungy and Trent Dilfer (who had a borderline stroke discussing this call on ESPN) all derided Belichick's decision.
On the more analytical side, there was a great piece on Advanced NFL Stats that detailed the probability of the decision and concluded that Belichick made the right call:
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount.
Many of the comments I read were of individuals just throwing out numbers pulled from their asses (I give the Colts X chance of scoring based on the data provided to me from the monkey inside my head), so I tend to lean towards Advanced NFL Stats in this example. Although statistics can't tell us everything, it is a good basis to start.
There were also numerous columns about how Bill Belichick's decision was one of an egomaniac whose arrogance and emotions factored into the process. Other columns used Belichick's decision to prove he is a coach without emotion and believes he was going for the win. I don't know Belichick. I don't know anyone who knows Belichick. I cannot comment on the arrogance/emotion of Belichick since I have no idea what he was feeling. My presumptions are based only on the visuals before me, empirical data and common sense. I believe Belichick made the right decision.
Every game is like a movie unfolding before our eyes. Sports are movies with much second guessing however. Although some people's opinions would not have changed if the outcome was different (some people flat out hated the move), we can speculate how differently things could have turned out. Before we consider the Colts-Patriots movie, there was another movie played out a few hours later worth noting. Earlier in the day, the Jaguars were losing 22-21 to the Jets. With the Jags driving, Coach Jack Del Rio told Maurice Jones-Drew to take a knee at the one yard line to further bleed the clock. The Jags would only need to kick a game ending field goal for the win. If the Jags scored a touchdown and converted the PAT, the score would have been 28-22 with about 1:48 remaining on the clock, more than enough time for the Jets to drive down the field and score a winning TD.
Del Rio made a decision, and it worked. But what if Josh Scobee missed the extra point? Basically he was kicking an extra point, and Scobee has been 41-42 for FGs between 20-29 yards. Automatic gimme, right? Well nothing is automatic in sports and there's always a chance of a miss. In fact, I'm sure Jaguar fans remember this game. If Scobee missed, Del Rio would be seen as a buffoon; someone too cute for his own good and out smarted himself.
You have to remove the ending to the movie to really give the Belichick decision a fair shake. It is easy to conclude Belichick's decision was as a bad one given the result. And I understand some people hated the decision from the moment the ball was snapped, regardless of the outcome. We also will never know the ending if the Patriots did punt. There could have been a punt return for a TD, a block, a Peyton Manning TD drive, a Manning INT, a Colts fumble etc. There is literally a thousand things that could have happen.
What Belichick decided was that, with two minutes left, he trusted his offense to pick up two yards over giving Peyton Manning the ball. I don't think it is necessarily disrespecting his defense. No one would ever argue "let's take Albert Pujols out of the game and pinch hit Joe Thurston because we have a one run lead and I trust the bullpen". You have the best player up to bat, you let him swing. It appears Belichick thought his chances were better with Tom Brady, his best player, making a play to pick up the first down.
I have a hard time criticizing any coach who makes the best decision possible for his team to win. It might be unconventional, but that does not make it wrong. Bruschi and Harrison took issues with the decision. Makes sense. They are defensive players. QB's have sent the punt team off the field (actually if I remember correctly Manning did this last year. Was it against the Chargers in the playoffs? Can someone verify?) because they believe they can pick up the yardage to get a first down. It isn't always conventional, but that doesn't make it automatically wrong.
Peyton Manning is arguably the best quarterback in the world right now. He is having an unbelievable season. The Patriots had a good defensive game plan and Manning still had 298 yards and 3 TDs going into that 4th down call. Manning has had some unbelievable comebacks in his career. Manning also led the Colts down the field twice in the 4th quarter for TDs. All of the variables you do need to take into account. You cannot just look at the statistics since that factors every game and every quarterback. If Belichick looked over and saw JaMarcus Russell or the ghost of Lew Pope on the sideline, that changes things. He didn't see them however. He saw Peyton Manning. Although the odds are a team scoring 30% of the time in the "punt the ball and turn over possession at the 34 yard line" situation, Peyton would have a better than 30% chance to score. While you might not want to give Peyton the ball inside his 30, you probably don't want to give him the ball at all given how dangerous of a QB he is.
I would bet Peyton hated the call because he knew if the Pats got two yards, the game was over. He wanted another chance to lead the Colts to a win. The only guaranteed way for him to get the ball was if the Patriots punted. Belichick saw his pass defense get shredded that fourth quarter. You can't be worried about their psyche because your job is to win ballgames. Statistically a team has a 60% chance to convert a 4th and 2 in that situation, but like the Peyton situation, you would think Brady is a better than average QB who could get you two yards.
While the statistics say Belichick made the right decision, when you factor in all of the variables it becomes an easier decision, even though the possible result is giving Peyton the ball at the Patriots 28. Belichick had a good play and it was executed almost perfectly. I am not giving him the benefit of the doubt because he won three Super Bowls. I would feel the exact same way whether it was Belichick or Barry Switzer or Bill Cowher and AS LONG AS THEY HAD A LOGICAL REASON THAT BENEFITED THE TEAM IN MAKING THEIR DECISION. I realize most experts have blindly said "you must punt" but did they come to that conclusion based on rational thought or because it is what has been done for 100 years in football?
That play did not decide the game. Lawrence Maroney fumbled in the end zone. Brady threw an interception. The defense gave up nearly 400 yards going into that final drive. If you are going to criticize Belichick on anything it should be the two timeouts used on that final drive (although one was on Brady). If the Pats had one time out they would have challenged the Kevin Faulk spot. It seemed to be a poor spot. That doesn't necessarily mean the call would be overturned - I have no idea. But Belichick gave himself little cushion in case of a close call. The Patriots lost because of the totality of the game. Focusing on just one play is silly since there are a hundred plus plays in a game that affected the outcome.
It serves no point speculating what would happen if the Pats had their two timeouts. Maybe the Pats lets the Colts score and Brady gets the ball back with a minute left and two time outs. Maybe the Colts don't score anyway. All of that speculation, while fun, is pretty pointless. It is also pointless to speculate on the emotional state of the Pats defense. If you are a 28 year old player making a million dollars and your coach decides to let Tom Brady win a fucking game for you, and if you are sulking because you weren't on the field, then you're not a team player and Belichick has already cut you. Let's also keep in mind that the defense did have a chance to stop the Colts and they didn't, albeit on a short field.
Bill Belichick is a smart coach. You may not have made the same decision and disagree with the call, but you cannot disagree with it because it was wrong. We cannot possibly know every variable. None of us known what was going on inside the huddle and what was discussed. Statistically it was in the Patriots favor to go for it on 4th down rather than knowingly giving the ball back to Manning. I am certain Belichick considered all of the above factors and made the decision he believed was best to help the 2009 New England Patriots beat the 2009 Indianapolis Colts and that is really all you can ask for from your head coach.
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